Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 3.183556 3.832715 4.558469 5.426735 6.433799 7.561523 8.916224
2025-03-23 2.234233 3.095068 4.173661 5.608519 7.449351 9.712301 12.682534
2025-03-30 1.607988 2.524286 3.792527 5.638142 8.210143 11.616006 16.405006
2025-04-06 1.196491 2.103887 3.476154 5.634594 8.859974 13.401027 20.151410
2025-04-13 0.911661 1.781033 3.206460 5.609171 9.424452 15.084514 23.900390
2025-04-20 0.790360 1.686851 3.258323 6.059902 10.728570 17.943790 29.593870
2025-04-27 0.656664 1.530868 3.167386 6.247161 11.620250 20.248432 34.652276
2025-05-04 0.559749 1.417303 3.122982 6.494285 12.621737 22.799234 40.290901
2025-05-11 0.455888 1.258519 2.957954 6.488231 13.172627 24.651801 44.950100
2025-05-18 0.354384 1.073095 2.698462 6.253388 13.271522 25.736217 48.412802
2025-05-25 0.269411 0.898691 2.421670 5.930832 13.153029 26.412259 51.212695
2025-06-01 0.217716 0.793398 2.274225 5.847101 13.472100 27.876473 55.465153
2025-06-08 0.171733 0.689297 2.110746 5.711492 13.692398 29.220381 59.692040
2025-06-15 0.154313 0.667496 2.149115 6.042197 14.917086 32.563353 67.811799
2025-06-22 0.129826 0.612384 2.087291 6.125738 15.624810 34.970471 74.373446
2025-06-29 0.107398 0.554563 2.003731 6.140843 16.182045 37.124603 80.607770
2025-07-06 0.088072 0.499170 1.912845 6.120307 16.653266 39.139313 86.707709
2025-07-13 0.083788 0.504856 2.009488 6.608642 18.350343 43.787335 98.231888
2025-07-20 0.073580 0.479398 2.001475 6.811367 19.393155 47.146857 107.408296
2025-07-27 0.065857 0.461885 2.015595 7.077908 20.616495 50.973247 117.744514
2025-08-03 0.054785 0.421031 1.939122 7.071523 21.166399 53.391487 125.365793
2025-08-10 0.042423 0.364314 1.788861 6.818610 21.064006 54.372659 130.085323
2025-08-17 0.031641 0.307563 1.619132 6.471023 20.670023 54.664522 133.370007